When Will AI Replace Élagueur d'arbres ?

The automation wave for Tree Trimmers and Pruners is unfolding in distinct phases. Routine ground-level trimming and basic pruning decisions are set to be automated by AI-assisted equipment, with initial impacts foreseen as early as 2028 for entry-level ground crew roles. By 2032, approximately 45% of all tasks within this profession are projected to be handled by robotic systems. This includes data collection via drone surveys, which will become increasingly autonomous.

The early impact, starting around 2028, will primarily affect entry-level ground crew workers. These are individuals performing repetitive tasks like hedge trimming and debris hauling. As AI technology advances, these standardized residential jobs will be the first to be significantly automated. This means a shift in demand for these specific skill sets will occur sooner rather than later, requiring adaptation for those in these positions.

The mid-to-late wave of automation, extending towards 2037, will see more complex tasks being addressed. While a significant portion of general trimming will be automated by 2032, the transformation for specialized roles is more gradual. Certified arborists focusing on complex tree health assessments, hazardous removals, and client consultations will experience a slower rate of automation, allowing for career extension.

Entry-level ground crew workers performing repetitive hedge trimming and debris hauling are most vulnerable to early automation, with impacts expected as soon as 2028. Their tasks are highly standardized and lend themselves well to robotic solutions. This segment of the workforce needs to prioritize upskilling to remain relevant in the face of these technological advancements.

Conversely, certified arborists specializing in complex tree health assessments, hazardous removals, and client consultation are in a much safer position. These roles require nuanced judgment, problem-solving, and human interaction that AI currently cannot replicate. These specialized arborists can extend their careers to 2037 and beyond, and may even command premium rates in high-value urban forestry markets.

You have a critical window of 3-8 years to adapt, depending on your specialization. For those in more routine roles, consider acquiring new skills in areas less susceptible to automation, such as advanced diagnostics or specialized pruning techniques. Continuous learning is key to navigating this transition and securing your future in the industry.

Master arborists and those with specialized certifications can leverage their expertise. Focus on developing skills in areas like emergency storm response, heritage tree care, and advanced urban forestry management. These niche areas remain human-dependent and will likely see increased demand and higher compensation as AI handles more generalized tasks.