When Will AI Replace Jardinier-paysagiste ?

The impact of AI on landscaping and groundskeeping is projected to unfold gradually. By 2034, expect around 35% of tasks, particularly routine lawn mowing and basic maintenance on large commercial properties, to be automated by physical robots. This early wave is already visible with advanced robotic mowers expanding their reach.

The initial impact is already being felt in routine mowing for large open lawns, especially for HOAs and commercial properties, with significant shifts anticipated around 2030. This segment of the industry will see the earliest and most direct influence of automation.

The mid-wave transformation will see broader adoption of automation in larger commercial settings. While the overall percentage of automation for the entire sector is moderate, the specific tasks and roles focused on repetitive maintenance will be significantly affected as robotic solutions become more sophisticated and cost-effective.

Landscapers whose work primarily consists of routine lawn mowing for large, open areas like HOAs and commercial properties face the most immediate risk of automation, with impacts beginning around 2030. Roles heavily reliant on repetitive, predictable tasks are the most vulnerable.

Conversely, professionals specializing in custom landscape design, complex tree care involving climbing and chainsaw work (especially ISA-certified arborists), hardscaping installation (patios, retaining walls), irrigation system design, seasonal planting rotations, and plant health diagnostics are highly resistant to automation. These roles require artistic vision, problem-solving, and specialized skills that AI currently cannot replicate, ensuring their safety through at least 2038+.

To future-proof your career in landscaping, focus on developing and emphasizing skills that AI cannot easily replicate. This includes artistic vision for custom landscape design, advanced techniques for tree care and pruning, proficiency in hardscaping installation, and expertise in irrigation system design and plant diagnostics.

Embrace continuous learning and specialization. For those focused on routine mowing, consider diversifying into design, tree care, or hardscaping. For the more specialized roles, consider certifications like ISA for arborists to demonstrate expertise. Staying ahead of technological advancements and client demands will be key.